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X3w8w
Helper
last online: 07/18, 15:51
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Will the Russia-Ukraine war end soon?


I sure hope it will, no one wants a war...

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Since writing this post Helper may have helped people, but has not within the last four (4) days.
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hope, war, russia-ukraine
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Lano
last online: <time class="timeago" datetime="1713410299" title="Apr 18, 2024 3:18">Apr 18, 2024 3:18</time>
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The short answer is yes.

Generously Kyiv, the capital, will get captured in a few days, probably less. When it does it may trigger an immediate surrender, or it might not.

Let's say they keep fighting. If the conventional Ukrainian military forces survive a month without surrendering or being destroyed it would be a miracle. The Russian military has frankly managed to embarrass itself so far, but in the end they just have way more resources to throw at this than the Ukrainians can possibly adequately respond to.

Now, its very possible that some, perhaps many Ukrainians will turn insurgent and wage a guerilla war against a Russian occupation or just as likely at some point, a Russian puppet government. Then the bloodshed might continue many years, sadly.

I think the world and Ukrainians would have been better served with the pre-invasion gov't. But i am not optimistic that it will survive this war so i just hope as few people suffer and die as possible with the most amount of justice being served in the end.

05ad6afe 1f85 4c4a 8680 4f73a3c1f45c
Lano
last online: <time class="timeago" datetime="1713410299" title="Apr 18, 2024 3:18">Apr 18, 2024 3:18</time>
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The most optimistic scenario that has a ghost of a chance of being reality is that Russia will seek a diplomatic solution that increases the size of the puppet republics he's created in eastern Ukraine, but that seems unlikely...he could have done that without shooting missles at major population centers. His plan is probably to do a full regime change in Ukraine, or just annex it outright.

Yorick
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last online: 02/28, 23:53
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Even though Russia(aka Putin) is onslaught for a land grab. one cannot fight the rest of the world.

i dunno. but seems like sanctions are working so far.. Russia needs to hang Putin.

05ad6afe 1f85 4c4a 8680 4f73a3c1f45c
Lano
last online: <time class="timeago" datetime="1713410299" title="Apr 18, 2024 3:18">Apr 18, 2024 3:18</time>
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I don't know if ya'll been folowing the war closely but figure i'd update my opinion since the situation has evolved.

Many people seem to think, for better or worse, that the war will last a lot longer than initially expected.

Its only been a week or so, so too early to really say, and i think there is still an above average chance ukrainian military eventually folds, but the odds of this evolving into a stalemate situation have gone up significantly.

X3w8w
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Helper
last online: 07/18, 15:51
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I wonder if there are any updates on anyone's thoughts

My friend lives in Kharkiv and he has no access to heating and their fridge doesn't work now due to the destruction of a nearby power station, so he can't store his food but he cannot leave because his mother is very old.

However, he is much more optimistic than my friend in Moscow, who is determined to leave but not sure how.

05ad6afe 1f85 4c4a 8680 4f73a3c1f45c
Lano
last online: <time class="timeago" datetime="1713410299" title="Apr 18, 2024 3:18">Apr 18, 2024 3:18</time>
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Helper wrote:
I wonder if there are any updates on anyone's thoughts

My friend lives in Kharkiv and he has no access to heating and their fridge doesn't work now due to the destruction of a nearby power station, so he can't store his food but he cannot leave because his mother is very old.

However, he is much more optimistic than my friend in Moscow, who is determined to leave but not sure how.

My thoughts on the situation now are...im praying ww3 doesn't happen and that the parties agree to a ceasefire asap.

I will pray your friend in Kharkiv stays safe.

X3w8w
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Thank you Lano I hope too, my friend works from home so in a way he is still able to keep working which is good, I cant imagine the situation for the majority of the Ukrainians

Yorick
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so um, how long is soon?

05ad6afe 1f85 4c4a 8680 4f73a3c1f45c
Lano
last online: <time class="timeago" datetime="1713410299" title="Apr 18, 2024 3:18">Apr 18, 2024 3:18</time>
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NacthoMan wrote:
so um, how long is soon?

Soon at this point would mean sometime next month. Most optimistic estimate while being somewhat realistic. That would entail russia taking more territory in Ukr Donbas region and agreeing to a ceasefire that Ukrainians accept and that somehow leads to a long term negotiated outcome. A lot of ifs there.

There will probably be a ceasefire at somepoint this year, or at least the Russians will ask for one, because the war is not really sustainable for their military. There is a good chance they would just be using it as a strategic pause to regroup and resupply.


The problem is that Russia is asking for things UKR is unwilling to accept and Russia is unwilling so far to back down from those demands...ideal scenario is that Russia just gets tired of the war and quits but that just doesn't seem likely as of right now.

Praying Im wrong on that.

1581744157174 1581744149313 miss bot
soco
last online: 03/19, 3:49
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God only knows...
And Orange-julius Trump is NOT the new Messiah...

Help me with:

We have another hurricane coming this way.

A
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